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- Spreadsheet: Tesla Hardware 3 Fleet’s Cumulative Years of Continuous Driving
- Could the government fund data gathering?
| Posted: 23 Dec 2019 09:17 AM PST |
| Spreadsheet: Tesla Hardware 3 Fleet’s Cumulative Years of Continuous Driving Posted: 22 Dec 2019 06:30 PM PST I made a spreadsheet in Google Sheets to conservatively project the cumulative years of continuous driving (both fully manual and partially autonomous, e.g. Autopilot) for Tesla's fleet of Hardware 3 cars. The formula for each month is (1 hour * 30 days * the number of cars) / 8,760 hours. Then you add up the result for each subsequent month. I start counting in April 2020 — by which time, hopefully the new neural networks designed for HW3 will be at least running passively in shadow mode on the fleet. I didn't account for any retrofitted HW2 cars in this spreadsheet. I assumed production of 105,000 cars per quarter (8,750/week) until July 2021, when I added 4,000 Model Ys per week. The reason I care about this is imitation learning on the HW3 fleet. For comparison, AlphaStar Supervised was trained using pure imitation learning on human-played StarCraft II games and it is better than 84% of human players. DeepMind used about 1 million games to train AlphaStar Supervised. At an average game length of 25 minutes, that's only about 50 years. In April 2020, Tesla's HW3 fleet will be driving over 1,000 years per month. If 0.5% of driving is used in imitation learning, 50 years will be used by October 2020. If 0.1% is used, 50 years of driving will be used by December 2021. If 0.05% is used, the training dataset will get to 50 years by October 2022. Driving and StarCraft are, of course, disanalogous in multiple important ways. I don't think we can assume the same number of years of imitated behaviour will result in the same level of competence. This is just the only example of imitation learning I'm aware of that is remotely comparable in scale. [link] [comments] |
| Could the government fund data gathering? Posted: 23 Dec 2019 12:40 PM PST Was thinking what would it take for the government accelerate the roll out SDCs? Say we had 5 billion to play with. What if the government could pay for the capture driving video and sensor data to make a public set? Say Tesla could let the government pay for the costs to upload 100% of data and video from every car in it's fleet, but make it available to anyone. Possibly the government could pay for some human labeling too. The goal would be a data set that is unmatched, including plenty of accidents, bad driving, and hopefully good coverage of many novel edge cases. Is this a crazy idea? Would there be a better way for the government to speed things up. Speeding up roll out by 5 years could save like 200k lives. It seems like if there were a good way to make it happen faster, we should do it. [link] [comments] |
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